Windtell wrote: Patrick will show up with the full house enough that you aren't getting money out of raising the last 30k though.
Disagree. The only full house that Antonius has in his range is JJ. He definately bets KK or 10-10 on the turn. And just because he 3-bets pre-flop, doesn't mean that hands like Q-9 and K-J are out of his range... Both of which I think he raises for value on the river. There are therefore more combinations of hands that don't have Dwan beat on the river than do have him beat... and since he NEVER folds those two hands since he only has 30k left... it's mathmatically correct to shove.
If he has a deeper stack... then obviously Q-9 and K-J do fold to a raise... so therefore there's no value in raising since he'd only call with a full house. But with the stacks shallow... this is definately a value-shove in my opinion. Just because you don't have the nuts, doesn't mean you shouldn't get value from it.
It kind of reminds me of a hand I played in the casino the other day (Blinds .50 and £1)... I raise UTG+1 with 7-8 of spades and get a caller from the BB, who is a relatively bad player with about £60 in front of him. Flop comes 6s-10c-2h. I get checked to... and continuation bet... which he then calls. Turn is the Jh, giving me the nuts. He checks and then I check behind. I'm not really sure why I chose to check behind, but there was good reason for it at the time. River is the 10h, completing a backdoor flush and pairing the board. The Villian bets £18, which was pretty much the pot, leaving himself £30 or so behind. I shoved. He snapped with A-10... I win a nice pot. A much nicer pot than if I'd just flat-called the river.
It's a very different spot, I grant you. But the basic idea is the same. Villain shows up with a lone ten here so much more often than a full house or a flush... yet a few people at the table were surprised that I didn't just flat call.