Poker Bets - A Lesson from Horse Racing

9 years ago
Poker Bets - A Lesson from Horse Racing
15:48
27 Feb

One of the most important skills in the poker world, aside from bankroll management, game selection and discipline, is bet sizing. The difference between receiving a call and watching your opponent fold when you've got the confidence can often be a matter of a few dollars. Bet too much and your bet can look too imposing to warrant a call. Bet too little and it will appear suspicious.

The same emphasis on betting is also apparent in the horse racing world. Given the number of betting options available in a single race and, moreover, an entire event, it's important to choose the right wager for the situation.

by Paolo Camera

As with making bets at the poker table, a range of factors needs to be assessed before you ante-up, including the size of your bankroll, the runners in the race, the conditions, the odds on the favourite and your expected return. Once you have run through this list of avaialbe options you should have a clear idea of how to bet on a race.

In fact, you will know whether a straight win bet, an each way wager or a forecast (predicting the first two finishers) is best suited to the conditions. So, how can this help you at the poker table?

Aside from poker players loving a little bit of side action, the forthcoming Cheltenham Festival is a great chance for aspiring grinders to learn a little bit about betting. Although we have alluded to some of the similarities between decision-making in the two genres, the practicality warrants a little more analysis than a few sentences.

So, in the interests of learning and earning, here is a breakdown of how the world of horse racing could teach you a little bit more about betting.

The Size of Your Bankroll

As with all things in the gambling world, the size of your bankroll is a determining factor in all situations. At no point should you ever take more into a racetrack or onto a poker table than you can afford to risk.

by stevendepolo

However, the idea also goes a little deeper than this. Once you have actually decided how much you are going to take into each arena, you need to be aware that the money you have is fluid. At some points you are probably going to have less than you started with. Conversely, you may also have more than you began your session with. Understanding that your bets may have to change as your bankroll does is important.

Over the course of four days the Cheltenham Festival will host 28 races with the average day boasting seven races. In order to make the most efficient use of your bankroll, you need to use this information to plan ahead. For example, on Day one there are six races and you have $600 to gamble with.

Before the action begins, you need to decide how much of that money you are going to gamble on each race and not deviate from it. For ease you would simply ante-up $100 for each race in this scenario and, regardless of whether you win or lose, that figure would not change throughout the day.

This is the same approach you should use when you're playing any poker tournaments or SNGs. Plotting out exactly how many games you want to play and weighing that up against the money you have available is crucial. For example, if you once again had $600 and decided SNGs were your best game and that you wanted to play 60 in a day. In this scenario you would limit yourself to games costing no more than $10 and forget about any fluctuations throughout the session.

What is the benefit of doing this? By planning what you are going to spend in each scenario, you give yourself the freedom to think about more important things. In horse racing you should constantly be thinking about which horse suits the conditions best based on their skill and form. Silviniaco Conti is 10/3 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, for example, but odds can then differ by things such as the weather.

Similarly, at the poker table you should constantly be assessing the dynamics of the game and which moves will work on certain players and which moves will not.

All of this is only possible if you are comfortable in the moment. Once you have decided how much you're going to bet in each instance, you have essentially reduced your risk to zero. You know how much you stand to lose in any scenario and even if everything goes wrong, your maximum outlay will not exceed what you had planned for that particular session.

The Runners in the Race

Another important betting tip poker players can take from the horse racing world is the size of the field. Online and offline poker tournaments come in a variety of flavours and depending on the buy-in and final prize, the size of the field can vary dramatically. For example, a freeroll with a $1,000 prizepool could have upward of 1,000 entrants, while a $215 MTT with a $5,000 guarantee will likely have less than 200.

by charlesdver

Similarly, some horse races will have as few as four runners while others, such as the Grand National, can have in excess of 20. In short, the size of the field will seriously affect your betting strategy. Consider this - you have decided you want to bet on the Grand National and you look down the list of runners and see 30 names to choose from.

For any horse, regardless of their talent, the odds of beating 29 competitors in a tough race are low. The same is also true for a poker player sitting down for a large online tournament. Even if you are a highly ranked MTT grinder, the chances of winning a freeroll against 1,500 players are low.

Understanding the dynamics of the situation and the task at hand is important in determining your betting strategy. For example, betting on a major horse race such as the Grand National is almost pot luck and canny punters often use it as a way to "have a gamble". Essentially, they take a high risk, high reward approach by picking a few outsiders to win. The same should also be true if you are playing an MTT such as a freeroll.

Realising that your chances of winning are low should prompt you to be more aggressive with your bets. If you think you are flipping in the early stages of a freeroll, then you should take that bet. In contrast, if you are in a smaller tournament with a better structure and fewer players, then a flip in the first level probably is not a good idea as there is more value in taking your time and employing a more measured approach.

Basically, the dynamics of a race or a poker tournament should guide your betting strategy. Large races and highly-populated tournaments require a more aggressive style, whereas as more intimate affairs call for a more measured approach.

The Running Conditions

The final tip tournament grinders can pick up from racing pros is flexibility. During the course of a festival, such as Cheltenham, the conditions of the track can change dramatically. Although the stewards will do their best to keep the ground as solid as possible, everything from the weather to the horses will serve to disrupt the soil and compromise the integrity of the track.

by Mark Fischer

When this happens, it's common for professional horse racing tipsters to re-evaluate their picks and adjust them according to the conditions. A horse that was previously backed to win may move down the rankings because the ground has turned in favour of another competitor. When this happens, a bettor has to adjust their bets and this can often mean altering the amount they planned to spend.

If the conditions have become so bad that the ground is almost a bog, an experienced punter may take their planned stake and cut it in half. Essentially, it pays to be flexible when it comes to placing bets in the horse racing world and the same is true for poker players.

You may be in a situation at the table where you felt like an aggressive style was the way forward. However, within three hands your stack has been cut by 75% and you're suddenly the short stack. At this point, just like when the track conditions have changed, you need to adapt your strategy and switch up your bets.

Playing aggressively in a bid to bully your opponents will not work if you do not have the ammunition to back it up, just as a heavy horse with a lot of power will not perform as well as a lighter horse in wet conditions. Assessing your surroundings and the immediate dynamics is crucial if you want to improve your overall EV.

by woodleywonderworks

Although it may not seem like the horse racing world can offer the humble poker player a lot of advice in terms of betting, there is actually a lot of crossover between the two disciplines. Essentially, the key to success in both arenas is planning and flexibility. Once you have clearly defined your boundaries, then you can work within these parameters to achieve the best results possible based on all the information at your disposal.

So, the next time you think about playing some MTTs, try thinking like a horse racing tipster and you may just see a marked improvement in your overall returns.


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Ivan Potocki is the editor in chief and one of the lead news writers for PokerTube. His natural flair and enthusiasm for journalism combined with a deep poker knowledge make him an exciting contributor for PokerTube.The experience garnered playing poker professionally for several years and the knowl...Read more

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