Las Vegas-based travel vlogger and filmmaker Pompsie is under fire for posting a misleading and irresponsible video that claimed his roulette strategy will let viewers “always win.” The video, which features the flawed Martingale system, is under scrutiny for promoting a strategy that requires massive bets for tiny rewards and presents incorrect statistical information.
Losing Strategy
The Martingale system is a well-known strategy that requires a player to double their bet every time they lose. The idea behind the strategy is that it is unlikely that a player will suffer a long string of consecutive losses, so they will be able to make back their money eventually. However, the claim that this strategy guarantees a win is not only a lie but also harmful to vulnerable gamblers.Pompsie used the Martingale method to double his $1,000 stake playing roulette at The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas. While he did manage to go from $1,000 to $2,000 in just over two hours, it is important to note that the house always wins in the long run, and no strategy can guarantee a win as a long stretch of losing bets will eventually run into a betting limit.
The biggest issue with the Martingale system is the “risk of ruin,” which is the possibility of losing everything. Pompsie's case is an example of how six losing spins in a row would cost him almost his entire $1,000 stake. Additionally, the potential return is very small compared to the risk. If a player wins the sixth, seventh, or eighth doubled bet, they only get back to where they were before the winning streak plus a single betting unit. Oversized bets do not guarantee a lot of money because they will only get a player back to just above even if they can get the next bet accepted.
Aside from the “ALWAYS WIN” message on Pompsie’s video, which is misleading, he also provided false information. He explained the odds of hitting red seven times in a row but looked at the wrong thing. He should have used the probability of hitting “not black,” accounting for the green 0 and 00. Additionally, the odds of hitting “not black” seven times in a row are extremely low, but he claimed it was “almost impossible.” However, during his gambling session, that “almost impossible” thing happened when he hit black eight consecutive times.
In managing his bankroll, Pompsie's calculations were also wrong. He said that he was limiting himself to $1,000 in losses, but he erred in calculating how many times he could lose in a row, as he didn’t account for the fact that the previous bets would have shrunk his bankroll.
It is a flat out lie to claim that any roulette system guarantees a win. While it is fine to try the Martingale system, players should figure out their loss limit and stick to it. The video posted by Pompsie is not only misleading but also promotes irresponsible gambling behaviour that could lead unaware players to lose a significant amount of money.