When is it Safe to Ignore the Pot?

When should you bet while ignoring its size relative to the pot?” came the question.

Unfortunately for them, I'm afraid my answer is indeed “never,” and I'm going to explain why.

What Is Poker?

Underneath all the glamour, perceived psychology, fancy sunglasses, etc... card games which fall under the poker category are just elaborate maths puzzles, nothing more, nothing less.

“Rubbish!”, I can hear shouted from the crowd. “I've never studied any poker maths theory, and I do just fine”

Just because somebody chooses not to apply themselves to understanding the mathematical side of the game doesn't have any bearing on whether or not it is actually important. This also applies to when a player might think that they are not using maths, because unconsciously they always are.

Every decision you take, in every hand, should be related to the size of the pot. Sometimes this may be to a lesser degree than another factor, but what you are risking, in combination with what your reward is, makes up the essence of poker. Whatever is in the pot, when it's your turn to act, is the starting point for your decision making process. It is something you ignore at your own peril.

Can We Look at the Maths and Ignore the Pot?

This is where it can get quite complicated. Casual players who don't even have a rudimentary grasp of poker maths will struggle to understand fully until they learn the basics. I can't recommend strongly enough that if you play with any kind of regularity, you spend some time away from the table learning more about the numbers than just pot odds. As I have already said, it really is the essence of the game.

When we bet/raise in poker there should be a reason for it. It's either for value where we expect enough worse hands to continue, or as a bluff where we expect enough better hands to fold.

Sounds easy right?

As the game has evolved, the line between these two options has blurred somewhat, but that is beyond the scope of this article.

Let's look at an example given by the player who asked the original question:

He went on to to explain how he had observed that beginners often understand absolute bet size but not relative bet size. Unfortunately, he missed the point of what is actually happening when he bets/raises.

I think he is missing the big picture.

When value betting, we should consider the largest amount that we think that our opponent will call and then adjust, because sometimes it is more profitable to bet smaller if we think that a smaller bet will get called more frequently. This is because the villain is paying attention to their pot odds as well.

If we bet the same amount on the turn as we did on the flop, we are giving our opponent much improved odds. By the river, if we continue to bet the same amount, the odds are ridiculously attractive providing that the flop bet was a sensible size to begin with.

Surely even the weakest players can understand that if they have to call an amount a lot smaller than the pot, they can get away with calling weak hands more frequently than otherwise.

If there is $1 Million in the pot, are you ever folding for less than a $10 bet? Absolutely not! An extreme example maybe, but what if the pot is $10? Are you ever folding for a bet less than 10 cents if there is even the smallest chance you might be good?

This is pot odds at work, NOT a casual player looking at the absolute value of what he has to call.

When we are bluffing and praying for a fold, we are doing the opposite of value betting. We bet the smallest amount that we can get away with.

Don't blindly expect another player to ignore the pot just because you might be.

Other Situations

What if we are facing a player who has already indicated that they won't call in a specific situation. Something such as four to a flush or straight on the board and you already know that they won't call to split a pot.

Maybe they won't call even something such as a one quarter pot size bet, but I guarantee that if you make it small enough, pot odds will come right back into play and you will find yourself getting called.

What if our villain has a tendency to always treat overbets as bluffs?

This is tricky because if this is indeed 100% true, then not taking advantage of it is a criminal waste of win rate. I will partially concede that if your read is spot on, then this might be the closest spot to where we can ignore the pot and try to get as many chips in the middle as we can get away with.

I said partially though, for the reason that if your read is mistaken, then this can change into a huge loss of profit. The best players who are capable of making such good reads on their opponents probably never play with players so bad anyway.

For the rest of us, can we ever be so sure that every overbet will be seen as a bluff? I seriously doubt it. There will be some spots where overbet jamming for a bit more than the pot size is the best move, but there will be other factors at play.

Also, conversely to bluffing small, what if we start overbetting by jamming seven hundred big blinds? Is anybody ever calling without the nuts?

There's too many factors at play to disregard the pot. Sizing your bets normally in proportion to the pot size will always be the best policy. Looking for exceptions is fine, but the pot is where it starts and where it ends. Don't ignore it!