Blackjack Odds: A Complete Guide to Payouts, House Edge, and Probability

Blackjack odds describe how often players win, lose, or push, and how much the house expects to keep from every dollar wagered.

Under common multi-deck rules with fair payouts and basic strategy, players win a little over four hands out of ten, the dealer wins close to half, and the rest settle as pushes that return the stake.

Under those conditions, house edge usually falls between about 0.5 and 1 percent.

What Are the Blackjack Odds Under Standard Rules?

When players ask what the odds are in blackjack, the useful answer describes results under a specific rule set.

On a typical six-deck game that pays 3:2 on natural 21, has the dealer stand on soft 17, and allows doubles on any two cards with basic strategy in use, results cluster around three outcomes in long samples. Based on Wizard of Odds simulations, players win roughly 42 percent of hands, dealers win about 49 percent, and around 8 to 9 percent finish as pushes.

That pattern still favors the house. With strong rules and correct basic strategy, the advantage for the casino sits near 0.5 percent, which translates into an expected loss of about 50 cents for every 100 dollars cycled through the game.

Less favorable setups, such as 6:5 payouts on blackjack or the dealer hitting soft 17, push that edge closer to or even beyond 1 percent. Over a full session, that gap turns into more than triple the expected loss on the same betting volume.

Rule Changes and How They Shift the Odds 

The odds of winning blackjack sit on top of the rule card in front of you. A 3:2 payout on natural 21, a dealer who stands on soft 17, and flexible double and split options keep the built-in edge low. Swap those for tighter rules and the math moves quickly, even when the game on the felt looks the same.

• Payout on blackjack: A move from 3:2 to 6:5 typically pushes house edge up by about 1.2 percentage points under comparable shoe rules. A table that sits near 0.5 percent with 3:2 can climb close to 1.7 percent under 6:5 with no other changes.
• Dealer soft 17 rule: When the dealer hits soft 17 instead of standing, the edge usually rises by about 0.2 percentage points. A 0.5 percent game can drift toward 0.7 percent under the H17 rule.
• Doubling and splitting limits: Restrictions on doubling after splits, doubling on only certain totals, or tight split rules add tenths of a percent here and there. Each one is small on its own, yet together they stack into a noticeably tougher game.
• Impact over a full session: Cycle 10,000 dollars through a strong 3:2 S17 game and the expected house take sits near 50 dollars. Run the same volume through a 6:5 shoe with harsher rules and that figure can move toward 170 dollars, even if short sessions still swing up and down.

House rules sit on placards at every table, backed by internal statistics that casinos track for management and compliance. 

Many US gambling sites use the same rule language in brochures and player guides, while regulators such as the Nevada Gaming Control Board publish formal “Rules of Play” for blackjack that properties must follow.

Blackjack Odds Chart

The table below shows how a few common setups change house edge once basic strategy is in play. Numbers are approximate, yet they give a clear sense of how strong a classic 3:2 game looks beside a 6:5 shoe or a typical online format.

Note: House edge is based on calculations by Wizard of Odds (using six- and eight-deck rule sets from the most recent published tables). The RNG and live dealer figures assume six- to eight-deck 3:2 games with standard doubling rules, no unusual side conditions, and basic strategy in use. Actual figures still vary slightly by jurisdiction, provider, and table rules, so always check the specific game information screen or placard.

A move from 0.5 to 1.7 percent more than triples long-run house edge. Picking a table starts with the line on the felt that says 3:2 or 6:5, then with a quick glance at the soft 17 rule and deck count.

Blackjack Odds With Perfect Strategy: Solving Common Mistakes

Perfect strategy describes play where every hit, stand, double, and split follows a basic-strategy chart matched to the exact rules and deck count.

Under fair conditions, that approach can trim house edge down toward about 0.5 percent. If you start playing by hunches, that edge climbs, because every soft misplay hands the dealer extra value over thousands of hands. Some common mistakes include:

1. Standing too often on stiff hands: Standing on hard 16 against a dealer 10 may feel safer than risking a bust, yet basic charts recommend a hit in most rule sets. Treating 16 as an automatic stand can raise the effective edge by several tenths of a percent across large samples.
2. Ignoring strong double-down spots: Skipping doubles on totals like 11 against weaker dealer upcards leaves money on the table. Strategy analyses show that conservative players who rarely double can nudge the edge upward by around 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points compared with full basic strategy.
3. Misplaying soft hands: Standing on soft 18 against dealer 9, 10, or ace, instead of hitting or doubling in the right spots, shifts many close decisions in the house’s favor. Simulation work on common six-deck 3:2 S17 games shows weak soft-hand play can push overall edge toward 2 to 2.5 percent, even on otherwise good rules.
4. Taking insurance as a habit: Insurance pays 2:1 on dealer blackjack when the upcard is an ace, yet the true odds of that happening are longer. Treating insurance as an automatic side bet drifts house edge up again, especially for players who already stray from basic charts.

Probability of Blackjack Natural Hands

In a single-deck game, the chance of being dealt a blackjack on the first two cards sits at about 4.8 percent, or roughly once every 21 hands; that figure comes from 4 aces and 16 ten-value cards in a 52-card deck, combined into ace–ten pairs in both possible orders.

Multi-deck shoes trim that figure a little, landing near 4.75 percent for common six- or eight-deck setups.

A hard 12 that takes one card will bust around 31 percent of the time, because only ten-value cards push the total over 21. A hard 16 that takes one card will bust close to 62 percent of the time, since any 6, 7, 8, 9, or ten-value card tips the hand over the edge. 

Those bust percentages sit behind many hit-or-stand chart entries on stiff totals.

Live Casinos With Blackjack: Real Tables, Real Odds

Live casinos with blackjack post their rules in plain sight, and those rules decide the real blackjack winning odds at each table. 

Regional properties follow the same pattern. Rivers Casino Portsmouth in Virginia, for example, has offered both six-deck 3:2 S17 blackjack and multi-deck 6:5 tables on the same floor since May 2024, so odds change as soon as a player switches tables.

Many in-casino electronic terminals follow the same basic rules on paper yet pay 6:5 on naturals, which pushes the effective edge higher than nearby 3:2 tables. Whenever rules line up, that speed change does not alter long-run odds; it only changes how quickly the posted edge on the placard plays through a stack.

Using Blackjack Odds in Practical Session Planning

Blackjack odds and posted table numbers help frame a session before the first hand hits the felt. Treating a basic blackjack odds chart as a planning aid, rather than something to memorize line by line, keeps the focus on pace, stakes, and rule selection.

1. Set A Hand Count Before You Sit: Full live tables usually land near 50–70 hands per hour, while fast RNG or video blackjack can top 200 hands per hour in some formats. A short session target such as 100 live hands or 250 RNG hands gives a clear stopping line.
2. Pick Stakes As A Slice Of Bankroll: A simple guardrail is to keep the minimum bet near 1–2% of the money brought for that visit. A 500 dollar session budget points to 5–10 dollar hands in a regional room or low-stakes lobby, with higher thresholds left for bigger trips.
3. Read Rule Cards Before You Buy In: Choosing 3:2 over 6:5 matters more than table felt color. Published blackjack math sites such as Wizard of Odds show that reducing natural payouts to 6:5 raises house edge by roughly 1.4 percentage points compared with 3:2 under similar rules, which pulls more from the bankroll at the same hand count.
4. Tie Session Length To Wellbeing, Not Results: Using built-in time reminders and pre-set loss caps on regulated blackjack sites helps keep sessions inside a normal entertainment budget.

Keeping Blackjack Odds In Perspective

Blackjack works best when every new table choice starts with the rule placard rather than with hunches or streaks on the scoreboard. Payout ratios, deck counts, and pace control how quickly an edge shows up, and numbers from recent rule sheets and game surveys give a clear picture of that edge before a single chip hits the felt.

Treating those figures as a way to set limits, not to chase outcomes, keeps the game grounded as one part of a wider budget. 

If gambling starts to strain money, work, or relationships, reach out to the US national helpline at 1-800-GAMBLER for confidential support.