Negreanu vs Ivey Bracelet Bet - What side are you on?3 years ago
Some two weeks before the start of this year’s WSOP, Daniel Negreanu posted a bet offering on his Twitter, with really simple conditions: anyone who was willing to put up $5,000 or more could bet against him or Phil Ivey winning a bracelet during the Series. These types of bets are nothing new to the poker world, but the really intriguing part was the fact that he asked for no odds at all, the bet was offered at even money.
This stirred up quite a discussion on Two Plus Two forums on how (un)realistic this bet is. On one side there are those who would take Negreanu/Ivey side of the bet in a heartbeat, while the others seem to believe that, at even money, it is a no brainer bet against the duo.
It is hard to say who is right and who is wrong here. It is difficult to determine really relevant mathematical factors for these types of bets, as there are simply too many variables. Going simply by past results, Negreanu and Ivey have fifteen WSOP bracelets between themselves, and if that was the only factor, they should probably be offering odds.
On the other hand, there are 65 tournaments during the Series, and they will certainly not be playing all of them, and poker players are well aware of how cruel variance can be even for the best players in the world. Pretty much anything can happen in a period of one month or so.
Some people were even trying to come up with a formula that would provide a fair number for this bet, and different calculations were done, but all it did was create even more confusion in the ranks. The fact is that no one can come up with a real answer concerning the fairness of odds in this particular bet.
With the WSOP now under way and a dozen events already gone, those who put their money against the duo are closing in on the money. However, both Negreanu and Ivey are making deep runs and are threatening seriously to capture the title and the bracelet. Their best shot will probably be in the smaller fields, non-hold’em events. The two have already provided interested parties with a good sweat in the $25k Mixed-Max event, but Ivey eventually busted just before the money, keeping the suspense alive.
There is still plenty of time for both of them to get there, and if nothing else, we are certain that they will provide us with couple more really good sweats before it is all over!
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