When is it OK to Fold Aces?

(Photo: Oceanacardroom.com)

I have a good friend who was once a professional poker player. If I dared ask him whether it is ever OK to fold AA, he would have to go and have a lie down if he thought I meant pre-flop. But playing with AA can be difficult, as it is easy to get married to the hand and make some costly errors by over-estimating its strength (it does look lovely though doesn’t it?). Of course there have been occasions where a player has laid down AA before the flop although this is extremely rare.

Pocket aces (known as pocket rockets) is the strongest starting hand in Texas Hold’em, and against any two cards pre-flop it is favorite. Conventional poker wisdom tells us to get as much money into the post as possible when we have an edge, so purely from a math standpoint, building a big pot with AA pre-flop can never be classed as a mistake.

To put AA into perspective, we must remember that it is only one pair. However, against the ugliest two-pair, it is a huge dog, despite looking so pretty and filling us with such joy when we view our starting cards. So clearly there are times when folding Aces is ok, but let’s look at specific scenarios. Please note, I am being very practical and conversational here, I personally gamble with AA every time, for better or for worse!

Your First Hand in a $10,000 WPT, EPT or WSOP Event

If you are dealt AA in the first hand of a huge event and you have put down a ton of money to play, I would not hate you if you folded AA when three or more opponents go all-in on what appears to be the craziest table ever. AA is about 64% against any two cards with two opponents and decreases to just under 50% with five opponents. A call is never wrong here, but in this specific spot it would be brave. A fold would always leave you thinking “what if I called?” particularly if the AA would have held. However, aces do get cracked, and paying $10k (or whatever feels like a big buy-in for you) would be a costly beat.

If you do feel like folding in this spot though, you are probably playing too high to begin with, but if you had won your seat via satellite, for example, I can understand why you would want to prolong the experience.

A Huge Ladder Up

Whilst not necessarily the right play there is a view out there that it can be considered acceptable (if not correct) to fold AA in an all-in situation where laddering up would be worth a lot of money to you. To illustrate this point, imagine being in the final three of the main event of the WSOP. You are chip leader by a margin large enough whereby if the short stack is eliminated, you will still be chip leader when the tournament goes heads-up. You would also win a further $2 million. The players go all-in and you look down at AA. Are you tempted to fold?

I will admit this would cross my mind, but then you could end it all right there if you call and your aces hold!

Note the conditions I mention here. It is the biggest tournament with the biggest wins, but even in this scenario most players would say you should call. We can therefore conclude that in most spots folding Aces pre-flop is simply bad play and deserving of criticism. In only the most exceptional and rare circumstances does any consideration of folding become even partly correct and most strong poker players would argue it would remain a mistake.

Satellite Tournament Bubble

The goal of a satellite tournament is to win a seat at the larger event, with victory in a satellite being collecting the prize and not the win. In a satellite tournament the more participants there are the more seats and prizes will be on offer. Usually there is no additional prize other than claiming a seat, so you have nothing to gain by aiming to win.

Therefore, you will find yourself in spots on the prize bubble where there is an all-in and rather than risk your stack, you can fold and see if a short stack busts out and a it’s job done for you without any risk. This is particularly true if you happen to have a big stack, there is no reason to take the risk.

A Bad Flop Texture

As I said earlier, AA is just one pair. It looks amazing, but the longer your opponent stays in the hand and you do not improve, the less confident you should be about betting and raising and the more likely AA is behind to an improved hand. Remember that AA only really improves when you hit another Ace to make a set, so a connected flop with flush draws is terrible for your pocket aces. I’d rather get the money in pre-flop than face tough post flop decisions, but this is not always possible, so when you still have chips to invest, it’s certainly fine to fold Aces after the flop when the community cards slap you right across the face.

As a general rule of thumb, Aces are a thing of beauty before the flop that you can confidently risk your stack whilst holding. Any investment is about betting when you have an edge and folding when you hold no advantage, or in poker terms, you have poor cards. If you are scared to bet with AA, you must be scared to bet, period. So don’t be afraid to jam with Aces and you will win quite a lot of the time.

However, the longer you stay in a hand with AA and your opponent sticks around, they are obviously showing interest for a reason. Without getting clouded by the beauty of the Aces, (we’ve all done it) clearly focus on hand ranges and likely ranges just as you always do with any other starting hands and make your decision based on those facts rather than anything else.

As we have concluded in this article, there are definitely spots where folding Aces is fine. Review the way you play AA as it can often be a leak because it is overplayed. Sometimes it’s not only fine to fold Aces, but essential if you are to become a winning poker player.