When to Hit in Blackjack: Essential Strategy for Every Hand

Knowing when to hit in blackjack is one of the most fundamental decisions players face. Hitting means requesting another card to increase your hand total, directly impacting your chances of winning. The decision depends on your hand value, the dealer's upcard, and mathematical probabilities from millions of simulations. Mastering these decisions minimizes the house edge to its lowest point.

Understanding the Hit Decision

The basic concept of hitting centers on improving a weak hand without exceeding 21. When you hit, the dealer adds one card. You can continue hitting until you stand or bust.

After receiving your initial two cards, you signal for a hit by tapping the table behind your cards or clicking the "Hit" button online. Your new total determines whether you should hit again, stand, or bust.

The flexibility to hit multiple times creates strategic depth. A hand starting at 5 (A-4) can safely hit several times without bust risk, while a hand at 16 faces significant danger. Understanding this risk-reward balance is essential for optimal play.

When to Hit or Stand in Blackjack: Basic Strategy Rules

Mathematical analysis has produced definitive rules for when to hit and stand in blackjack. These guidelines apply regardless of intuition or recent luck, representing the statistically optimal play for every scenario.

According to eCOGRA’s 2024 statistical audit on blackjack RTP data, players who consistently follow optimal hit and stand charts can reduce the house edge to approximately 0.5% or lower, depending on deck count and table rules.

Hard Hands: When to Hit

Hands with hard values contain no Ace, counted as 11, making them less flexible. The decision rules are:

Always hit hard 11 or less. With 11 or below, you cannot bust by taking one card. The worst outcome is receiving a 10, giving you 21. This makes hitting risk-free.

Always hit hard 12 through 16 against the dealer 7, 8, 9, 10, or Ace. When the dealer shows strength, your 12-16 hand is likely to lose. The dealer's strong upcard suggests they'll reach 17 or higher, beating your hand. While hitting risks busting, standing guarantees a loss in most cases.

Hit hard 12 against the dealer 2 or 3. Though the dealer shows a weak card, 12 is too low to stand. The single-card bust risk (only 10-value cards bust you) is acceptable compared to standing on such a weak total.

Soft Hands: When to Hit

A soft hand contains an Ace worth 11, allowing players to switch its value to 1 when it helps avoid going over 21.

Always hit soft 17 or less. With an Ace counting as 11, you can improve without risking a bust. Even drawing a 10 to a soft 17 (A-6) gives you a hard 17. Many of the best blackjack sites display strategy charts that reinforce these rules.

Hit on a soft 18 against the dealer's 9, 10, or Ace. While 18 seems decent, it's a likely loser against strong dealer cards. The soft hand's flexibility makes hitting correct, as you can improve to 19-21 without bust risk on most draws.

Hit or Stand on 16: The Most Difficult Decision

The hit or stand on 16 decision represents blackjack's most challenging scenario. With hard 16, you're too low to beat most dealer totals, yet high enough that hitting carries significant bust risk.

Against a Dealer’s 2 Through 6: Stand

When the dealer shows 2-6, stand on a total of 16. These weak upcards create dealer bust probability of 35% to 42%.

The Surrender Option

Some tables offer surrender on 16 against dealer 9, 10, or Ace. If available, surrendering is often superior to hitting, as it limits your loss to half your bet rather than risking a full loss.

This is one of the most overlooked blackjack tips for reducing long-term losses, since surrendering correctly in these spots improves expected value far more than simply hitting or standing.

EV Example: Hit vs Stand on 16 Against a Dealer 10

Blackjack strategy charts tell you to hit 16 vs 10, not because it's a “winning” move, but because it loses less over time.

Using simulations from Wizard of Odds (2024):

• EV of standing: –0.539
• EV of hitting: –0.539 (H17 tables) to –0.542 (S17 tables)

Meaning:

Either decision loses money in the long run, but hitting is slightly less negative than standing. Over hundreds of thousands of hands, hitting 16 vs 10 minimizes overall loss, which is why it is the mathematically optimal play.

This single hand illustrates a core blackjack truth: Strategy is about minimizing losses when you’re already in a bad spot.

Complete Hit/Stand Strategy Chart

The table below breaks down the key hit or stand blackjack choices based on your total and the dealer’s upcard.

Source: Basic strategy chart derived from computer simulations byWizard of Odds and verified gaming mathematics analysis (2025)

Blackjack RTP Comparison by Provider & Rules

Different blackjack variants influence when hitting or standing becomes more or less profitable. Small rule changes, such as whether the dealer hits or stands on a soft 17, directly affect the expected value (EV) and long-term RTP.

Why this matters: H17 games make hitting more important on soft totals. S17 games are more forgiving. No-hole-card games punish double-downs.

This comparison shows how rules change optimal decisions and why hit-or-stand logic varies.

When to Hit in Blackjack: Specific Scenarios

When should you hit in Blackjack? Understanding the reasoning behind specific scenarios helps players recognize patterns and make confident decisions.

Hit on 12 Against the Dealer's 2 or 3

Many beginners mistakenly stand on 12 against a dealer's 2 or 3, fearing they will bust. However, the math favors hitting. Only four card ranks (10, J, Q, K) bust your 12, while nine ranks (A-9) improve it. The dealer's 2 or 3 isn't weak enough to justify standing on such a low total, as they still complete strong hands approximately 65% of the time.

Always Hit Soft Hands Below 18

Soft hands provide a safety net. When holding soft 13 through soft 17, hit because you have everything to gain and nothing to lose. Even drawing a 10 to soft 17 (A-6) gives you a hard 17, which is playable.

Hit Soft 18 Against Strong Dealer Cards

Soft 18 (A-7) feels decent, but it's a loser against the dealer's 9, 10, or Ace. The dealer makes 19 or better roughly 60% of the time with these upcards. Hitting gives you chances to improve to 19-21 without significantly worsening your position.

Blackjack Hit or Stand: Common Mistakes to Avoid

Understanding when to hit means recognizing common errors that cost players money.

Standing on 16 Against the Dealer's 7 or Higher

This is the most frequent mistake. Players fear busting and stand on 16, but this gives the dealer a strong advantage. The dealer makes 17 or higher approximately 75% of the time when showing 7 or better, and your 16 loses to all those hands.

Hitting When the Dealer Shows 5 or 6

When the dealer shows 5 or 6 (the weakest upcards), they bust approximately 42% of the time. If you have 12 or higher, standing allows the dealer's weakness to work in your favor. Many online casinos offer practice modes, allowing players to learn these patterns without financial risk.

Playing Soft Hands Like Hard Hands

Treating soft 17 (A-6) the same as hard 17 wastes the Ace's flexibility. Always hit soft 17, as you cannot bust and have everything to gain. The distinction between hard and soft hands is crucial for optimal play.

Ignoring Basic Strategy

Some players rely on intuition rather than proven mathematics. This approach inevitably costs money. Basic strategy charts eliminate guesswork and ensure you make the mathematically optimal decision on every hand.

Understanding Bust Probabilities

According to the UNLV Center for Gaming Research’s analysis of blackjack bust-probabilities and decision trees, the risk of going bust increases from approximately 31 % on a hard 12 to nearly 70% on a hard 17 in multi-deck games.

• Hard 12: 31% bust risk
• Hard 13: 39% bust risk
• Hard 14: 46% bust risk
• Hard 15: 54% bust risk
• Hard 16: 62% bust risk
• Hard 17: 69% bust risk

These probabilities help rationalize hitting decisions that feel dangerous. Understanding these odds explains why basic strategy recommends standing on 17 or higher but hitting 16 against strong dealer cards. The 62% bust risk at 16 is acceptable given the alternative of standing on a likely losing hand.

When to Stand in Blackjack

Knowing when to stand is equally important. Standing means you're satisfied with your current total.

Always stand on hard 17 or higher, as the 69% bust risk of hitting exceeds any potential benefit. Stand on 12-16 against the dealer's 2-6 to exploit the dealer's weak position and high bust probability. Soft 19 or higher should always stand, as these are strong hands that don't require improvement.

Mastering the Hit Decision

Whether to hit or stay in blackjack comes down to following mathematically proven basic strategy rather than relying on hunches. The decision rules are based on millions of computer simulations identifying the optimal play for every situation.

Hard hands of 11 or less should always hit, as should most hands against a dealer's 7 or higher. Soft hands below 18 should hit to leverage the Ace's flexibility. The most counterintuitive plays, hitting 16 against a dealer's 7 or higher, and hitting soft 18 against a dealer's 9-Ace, are often the most important to master.

By internalizing these rules and referring to strategy charts when needed, players can confidently know when to hit and stand in blackjack, giving them the best possible chance of winning each hand.

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