Predictions for 2016

Predicting the future, unless you happen to be a modern-day Nostradamus, is generally an embarrassingly futile task. But, I’m going to give it a go anyway! Here are my top 3 predictions for 2016 – ridicule or believe at your peril!

1. Three states in the US will legalise online poker!

Yep. Not just one, but maybe 3, perhaps, depending on various factors which may or may not occur. I say three- and I will even name them. Pennsylvania, California and Massachusetts.

Let’s start with the first – the least controversial prediction given 2015’s discussions at state level.

Pennsylvania

If the majority of 2015 was spent in seemingly endless tiresome debate about the pros and cons of regulating online poker/gambling, then the last part of the year actually showed some serious signs of progress for the pro-gaming lobby.

When the House Gaming Oversight Committee voted to pass Bill 649, it was a significant step towards full legalization and regulation – 18 out of 26 voting in favour – and 2016 could see the final 2 steps of voting happen reasonably quickly (by poker regulation standards at least.)

Money, naturally, will be the driving factor – and in Pennsylvania the budget deficit requires a lot of fancy-footwork to balance the books. Online gambling legislation –possibly worth up to US$300 million per year -could tip the scales and leave the nay-sayers licking their wounds sometime around late-summer.

California

This prediction may seem a lot less likely, given the deeply-entrenched position of the pro and anti-gaming lobbies – but there is a big difference between California and other states currently fighting for legal recognition… the battle is mostly between the players, not the lawmakers!

So what might change in 2016 to allow my prediction to bear fruit? Well, it’s very simple – compromise!

The anti-online gaming team is gathered around the Pechanga Band of Luiseño Indians of Temecula, who have joined forces with 6 other tribes, and are a strong body with a loud voice. What would make them happy? A withdrawal of PokerStars as the main ‘face’ of the pro-lobby, and a decent deal on the stumbling block of racetrack gaming proposals.

At the moment no-one is winning from the stalemate, and no winners equals no growth in finances for anyone.

I fully expect a compromise deal to be broken sometime in early summer, and then it’s a case of how quickly the legalities can be hammered out – with public support in principle, and no huge anti-lobby in state legislature, this could happen much more quickly than elsewhere. Check out this comprehensive guide for more info.

Massachusetts

The Bay State has seen a fair bit of movement towards legalisation of online gaming in 2015, and perhaps significantly the proposed Bill by Bruce Tarr limits the granting of new licences and DFS gambling, thereby cutting many objections off at birth.

Another of the ‘budgetary’ bills, where the revenue from gaming is hoped to offset some of the economic problems of the state, Massachusetts is currently expecting some $300million per year from the three casinos on their way to completion and opening.

Whether these figures are accurate or not, they still have a considerable pull for those swithering over support for or against online gaming. Given recent farcical testimonies on behalf of Sheldon Adelson’s RAWA Bill – which has seen support dwindle significantly recently – by the time Massachusetts gets around to detailed debate they may face fewer obstacles than they had previously imagined.

My prediction is for a win at the end of the year, some time post-presidential election. It will be a welcome boost for players in the area, although, along with others, I believe that gaming taxation will be higher than many operators would really wish for.

2. Europe will see much stricter gambling laws and regulatory powers

Until now, Europe’s regulation of online gaming has been a mish-mash of separate and distinct controls, each particular to the country and market. I expect a fairly significant move towards an EU-wide approach to the regulation of the online gaming industry.

The year just passed has seen all sorts of small but serious moves to impose ever-more-strict laws governing poker and gaming in general – much of which will come into effect this year.

Increased taxation in the UK, ridiculous operator license restrictions in Romania, privacy law problems in Sweden, and moves to restrict gambling advertisements in Spain and Italy, are but a few of the conservative-leaning headlines which will increase this coming year.

Of course, such measures are intended to provide a much safer environment for players, operators, their funds ,and vulnerable sections of society – but overall such tightening of regulations and taxation makes the market more susceptible to downturns in the economy. I also expect significant European revenue falls in the 3rd and 4th quarters, barring any real positive news to offset this.

In addition, some of the bigger markets -such as Italy, expected by some to boom this year – may see revenues increase but also significantly disperse this increase across new markets. On a slightly more positive note, the Netherlands may actually get around to legalising online gambling but I won’t be staking any money on it actually happening before the end of 2016.

3. Plans for a new ‘poker players’ online home will take a huge step forward.

Although this might sound preposterous to many, 2015 has seen many moves away from ‘serious’ online poker. Enough that it is not beyond the bounds of imagination that a group of like-minded players will find somewhere to continue the idea of professional online grinders and high-stakes pros.

The PokerStars farce, which saw their VIP levels massacred in the rush to appeal to recreational players and their wallets – coupled with software restrictions across the board, the GPI’s move towards sportification of poker, poker and igaming coming ever closer together and countless other things besides have dramatically changed the landscape for 2016.

To counter this, I expect some seriously clever poker individuals to find a way to cherry-pick the best of the changes in the online world and introduce them as a new site, perhaps a skin of some sort, with the emphasis on serious play and promoting poker as a game of skill rather than a lottery of spin and go type-games.

Naturally this won’t be easy, and would take massive funding, time and commitment, but I expect it to be at least attempted, if not actually realisable or sustainable long-term.